SPP Professors Conduct a Post-Conflict Stabilization Study of Afghanistan
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School of Public Policy Professors Ted Woodcock, David Davis, and Allison Frendak-Blume and consultant Dr. Loren Cobb organized and conducted a post-conflict stabilization study of Afghanistan at the Swedish National Defence College in Stockholm in January. The SPP Team with the assistance of Dr. Cobb from Colorado and Professor Hitchins from the United Kingdom is building the Strategic Management System (STRATMAS) for the Swedish National Defence College and the United States Joint Staff. During the study STRATMAS was used to generate data on future potential societal conditions in Afghanistan and to assess the impact of notional military and civilian groups on those conditions. The study took place in the Aquarium facility (shown below) at the Swedish National Defence College. The Aquarium is the Swedish National Command and Control and Crisis Management Test-bed. STRATMAS is a key component of the overall Aquarium software suite.
The STRATMAS team used two
consecutive notional scenarios in the study. The first scenario described
the transformation from a post-conflict situation involving high levels
of violence to intermediate levels of violence. It involved the deployment
of the notional Afghanistan Emergency Force (AFGEM) involving some 60,000
individuals under UN Security Council authority as well as civilian humanitarian
entities. The second scenario considered further transformations to low
violence level conditions where societal reconstruction and development
become possible. In the second scenario, a year after deployment of AFGEM,
the UN Security Council notionally authorized deployment the Afghanistan
Recovery and Stabilization Force (AFGRES) with a maximum force strength
of 25,000, in order to support the recovery and long-term stabilization
of the country.
The senior political leadership group at the study included Bill Farrand, a retired United States ambassador, currently working in the Peace Operations Policy Program at SPP. and Larry Sampler who was responsible for organizing the Loya Jirga in Afghanistan. The group provided strategic political guidance to the military force commander and other study participants. The force commander issued command intent and planning guidance statements to the planning staff. The planning staff, consisting of military and civilian personnel, prepared 90-day action plans to represent the initial response to the conditions in Afghanistan associated with both the AFGEM and AFGRES scenarios. STRATMAS was used to assess the impact of those plans. Data on key societal variables were displayed by STRATMAS in map-based and textual formats. Those data indicated significant reductions in violence and an amelioration of overall societal conditions resulting from deployment of AFGEM and AFGRES as well as the civilian humanitarian entities.